by: joanne laucius
expect to hear the word “endemic” a lot more in the coming months as covid-19 moves from a pandemic to something that is always lurking in the background.
endemic covid-19 will be back to normal — kind of.
“it will be part of our lives. but the goal will be to make it a less intrusive part of our lives. no more lockdowns. we will think about it the way we think about other infectious diseases,” said epidemiologist raywat deonandan, a global health researcher at the university of ottawa.
“it is possible that we’ll get it to the level of the flu. but that’s not necessarily a good thing. flu is a killer.”
when will it happen?
“we won’t know until we’re there. locally, it will probably be sometime next year. the big caveat is that there are no new variants, and that vaccines behave in predictable ways,” said deonandan.
“we’re anticipating that we will have covid seasons for the next few years as we build up immunity. there will be no ticker tape parade, no sign that says ‘we’re endemic!’” said dr. doug manuel, a senior scientist in the clinical epidemiology program at the ottawa hospital research institute who sits on ontario’s covid-19 science advisory table.
endemic covid will likely be seasonal, similar to the flu, which shows up in the winter as people mingle inside and droplets travel faster because of dry indoor air. but outbreaks will not necessarily be limited to winter. colds are seasonal, for example, but there are still summer colds.