with vaccinations surging across canada, and confirmed covid case counts and hospitalizations at a national level declining, the other side of the pandemic is drawing tantalizingly, mercifully closer and experts are beginning to offer glimpses of the future.
there are still many unknowns, and only speculations as to “what next,” but the story that began with a pneumonia of unknown cause in wuhan, china 17 months ago won’t end abruptly, epidemiologists say.
“we will not eradicate covid-19, at least not probably for the next decade,” dr. peter jüni, scientific director of ontario’s covid-19 science advisory table told a recent ontario medical association briefing. instead, the virus will shift to being a seasonal disease, something more like a “tedious influenza,” jüni said.
ashleigh tuite agrees sars-cov-2 will be with us for a while, “possibly forever.” but vaccines and population immunity will end the pandemic, tuite, an epidemiologist at toronto university’s dalla lana school of public health, said in an email. the more people vaccinated, the more immunity, the less transmission and disease.
two doses of pfizer or moderna provide over 95 per cent efficacy.
“that puts the measles vaccine almost to shame. that’s how effective these vaccines are with two doses,” said dr. gerald evans, head of the division of infectious diseases at queen’s university in kingston.