guideline confusion: are you 'bubbling' or 'social circling'?

this story was updated on june 12, 2020 to include ontario guidelines.after weeks of isolating, the idea of joining one household with a single other household seems attractive. it allows you to socialize, it can help parents with childcare, and it can help provide connection for those most vulnerable. but there are rules too: once linked up, it stays that way.in canada, only a handful of provinces so far have allowed two-household gatherings. new brunswick was the first province in late april to allow “double bubbles” and newfoundland and labrador followed a week later. in mid-may, nova scotia started exploring two-family “bubbles.” no new cases have emerged yet from “double bubbling.”on friday, ontario premier doug ford announced ontario would also allow expanded households, except he had a different term for the concept: “social circles.”these “social circles” allow expanding your household to include 10 people, ontario doesn’t specify the number of households that can be “bubbled” up, only that the number of people total doesn’t exceed 10 people. and all 10 people agree to be exclusive to each other.“this means finally hugging your grandparent or sharing a meal with your parents or closest friends but as we reopen and as we reunite we must continue to remain on guard,” said ford on friday.on top of that, on the same day ontario also allowed social gatherings of 10 people maximum from outside your household — but a two-metre physical distance must still be maintained, said health minister christine elliott on friday. but this doesn’t mean you should be seeing a new group of nine people every day. we should all be limiting the number of new people we see as much as possible.“i think in general, [double bubbling] is a good concept,” says ashleigh tuite, an infectious disease epidemiologist and math modeller at the dalla lana school of public health. “covid likes large groups of people. larger gatherings is where we see a lot of transmission happening.”expanding your bubble by one household requires careful consideration. for parents with both aging parents and young children, for example, bubbling with a grandparent could be good because they can help with childcare, but there is a certain degree of risk for the grandparent since they are vulnerable to severe disease.

double bubble comes with double risk

it’s important to think about the risk for both yourself and the person you’re “bubbling” up with. while double bubbling has the potential to help those who are isolated, vulnerable, or have difficulty caring for themselves and getting groceries, their safety depends on you — there’s always the possibility you could introduce infection.tuite says it’s important to balance these two aspects before choosing who to bring into your bubble. healthcare workers with a high risk of being exposed to covid-19, for example, may not want to bring others into their bubble.“there’s an element of trust to this. once you expand your network, you’re doing it under the assumption that everybody is comfortable with the similar level of risk as you are,” she says. “if you restrict your contacts to those within your household, it’s easier to know what people are doing and what their risk tolerance is.”this means clear communication from both sides. if you come from a household where wearing a mask to the store is important but the people in your double-bubble don’t have the same belief, it’s a good idea to figure out if you’re comfortable with this before entering into a double-bubble agreement.

double bubbling is better than relaxing group gatherings

while expanding bubbles could cause a spike in covid-19 cases, having only two-household social networks is better for controlling the disease’s chain of transmission than consistently socializing with different groups of people. that’s because each two-household bubble is its own self-contained bubble, whereas regular socializing can spread the disease more widely.“it’s really the contact rate and how many people you’re coming into contact with each day that is important,” says tuite. for example, you may go out for dinner with one group of people one day, and another group the next day. from a disease transmission standpoint, that’s a riskier set of behaviours than if you’re always eating with the same group of people because if somebody gets infected in your group and the disease spreads, it’s going to be contained within that group of people.”

double bubbling isn’t as clean-cut for different households

many people who live in non-traditional households — like apartments with multiple roommates or multi-generational homes — might not be able to agree as a household on who to double up with.“if you’re living with four other people, how does everybody choose one other household?” says tuite. “also, what if no one wants to be in your bubble?”the social dynamics around the two-household concept can make it complicated and bring up awkward conversations. in these cases, it might be riskier for everyone to stay within their own household bubble.

person, place, time and space

the level of risk in your double bubble depends on four different factors, says tuite, who credits a colleague with the concept: person, place, time, and space. for ‘person,’ think about who you will be interacting with, whether it’s a healthcare worker who is more likely to be infected or someone who is older and more vulnerable to infection.‘place’ refers to where you will be interacting with them. transmission risk is much higher indoors than outdoors.‘time’ refers to how long you spend with someone. even though retail spaces are indoors, for example, you’re not likely to spend a long period of time there.‘space’ is the amount of distance between yourself and others. the distance you might maintain in a shop is ideal for reducing spread, for example.“as much as we are tempted to stay away from everybody all the time, you do need to go out and do things,” says tuite. “understanding those different components — can you do curbside pickup at a store or can you wear a mask? — can help you minimize risk to protect yourself and protect others?”diana duong is a writer and editor at healthing. find her on twitter @dianaduo.dduong@postmedia.comdon’t miss the latest on covid-19, reopening and life. subscribe to healthing’s daily newsletter coming out of covid.