how do you predict a covid outbreak? look to the young
a cdc study suggests "addressing transmission among young adults is an urgent public health priority."
oct 13 2020
2 minute read
a cdc study of more than 700 virus hotspots suggests young people are the canary in the goldmine for outbreaks.
getty
the u.s. centers for disease control and prevention has troubling news for regions that are seeing an uptick in covid-19 cases in young people.
on friday, the agency released a report that suggests a jump in infections in those 24-years-old and younger is often a good predictor of an area becoming a virus hotspot.
the cdc studied positive infections by age group during june and july in 767 hotspots — u.s. counties that had more than 100 cases in seven days experienced increases in percent positive cases in the preceding three to seven days. percent positive cases were calculated by dividing the number of positive test results by the sum of positive and negative test results for different age groups. researchers looked at data both before and after the counties had been identified as hotspots.
the results? early increases in percent positive cases in those below the age of 24 appear to be something of a canary in the goldmine: rising cases in the young were followed by weeks of increased virus cases in those aged 25 to 44 about 28 days later. the 45 to 64 age group saw increases in 23 days, and for those over 65, cases rose about 20 days after.
“addressing transmission among young adults is an urgent public health priority,” the authors write. “an increase in the percentage of positive test results in older age groups is likely to result in more hospitalizations, severe illnesses, and deaths.”
the study backs up earlier observations from other countries that experienced a rise in cases. in august, italy saw an increase in covid-19 cases that were traced to nightclubs and young people on holiday.
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the jump in virus cases among the young even prompted members of the world health organization to speak out. takeshi kasai, the who’s western pacific regional director, said in a news briefing that many people in their 20s, 30s, or 40s are often “unaware they’re infected — with very mild symptoms or none at all. this can result in them unknowingly passing on the virus to others. this increases the risk of spillovers to the most vulnerable: the elderly, the sick, people in long-term care, people who live in densely-populated urban areas and under-served rural areas.”
in ontario, young people were also linked to covid-19 spikes. on july 21, the province reported that half of all 200 or so infections were among those under 39 years. the province has seen a big spike in cases more recently with new daily cases breaking records on friday with 903 cases reported. as of oct. 12, the largest percentage of cases, or about 18 per cent, were linked to those in the 20 to 29 demographic.
the cdc study could prove important to fighting new outbreaks. “understanding whether increasing incidence in hotspot counties is predominantly occurring in specific age groups is important for identifying opportunities to prevent or reduce transmission,” the cdc writes.
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