modelling suggests alberta covid spread will peak in september
the modelling includes assumptions based on spread of the more-contagious delta variant as well as vaccine coverage in alberta, hinshaw said
aug 6 2021
2 minute read
dr. deena hinshaw, alberta chief medical officer of health, gives her final regularly scheduled covid-19 update during a press conference at the federal building in edmonton, on tuesday, june 29, 2021.
ian kucerak/postmedia
by: jason herring
alberta’s internal modelling indicates current covid-19 spread in the province will peak in early september, according to the province’s top doctor.
during a webinar with primary-care physicians thursday evening, hinshaw said officials were preparing the modelling for release to the public, but that transmission of the virus is expected to continue increasing for about the next month.
“we expect to see cases rising for the next several weeks,” hinshaw said.
“the modelling indicated the likely peak will be in early september, and then declining cases. and again, the modelling indicated that while cases would increase, the impact on acute care — hospitalizations and icu — would not be significant.”
the modelling includes assumptions based on spread of the more-contagious delta variant as well as vaccine coverage in alberta, hinshaw said.
she acknowledged demand from albertans to see more of the evidence being used to make recent public health decisions, including the move to nix covid-19 containment measures that have been in place since last march, including testing access and isolation requirements.
alberta has faced widespread criticism for the decision over the past week, including a letter from federal health minister patty hajdu directed to her alberta counterpart tyler shandro expressing concerns the province could see a serious resurgence in cases. daily protests in calgary and edmonton have also called on hinshaw to reverse her decision.
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during her webinar with doctors thursday, hinshaw received nearly 350 questions, many asking for her to justify scrapping the ‘test, trace and isolate’ strategy when other jurisdictions have yet to do the same.
she said the province could renew this strategy regionally if warranted in the coming weeks and months.
“we have contingency plans to do that if we see a variant emerge that is more able to escape vaccine protection, if we are seeing a game-changing event and we need to move back to that approach,” hinshaw said.
alberta reported 397 new covid-19 cases thursday, its highest daily value since june 1.
there are 2,526 active cases in alberta, 1,956 of which are variant strains. the delta variant, originating in india and also known as b.1.617, is now dominant in the province.
as of wednesday, 64.8 per cent of albertans have at least one shot and 56.3 per cent are fully immunized. among those aged 12 and over who are eligible for the shot, 76.2 per cent are partially immunized and 66.2 per cent have had both necessary doses.
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