thanks to hoarding, our food supply can become precarious in the short term

by will verbovenconsumers in the well-fed western world are being jolted with the sight of some empty shelves in grocery stores.few folks realize how fortunate we are. we expect our stores to be overflowing with food products of every kind every day from everywhere. our idea of a food shortage is when we have only three varieties of apples available.perhaps covid-19 will cause spoiled consumers to realize that our food supply can become precarious rather quickly.the real situation is that unless the u.s. cuts off food shipments or our processing plants shut down, there is no food shortage in canada.what we have is an outbreak of hoarding, which is upsetting the fragile food distribution and retailing system. the system is fragile because due to economics and consumer demands, it has developed into a last-minute supply structure.for perishable foods, that means the process operates on a 30-day or less schedule. that’s mainly due to consumer demand for fresh, perfect produce. it’s not much longer for other food products as retailers, due to narrow profit margins, want to sell a particular food item many times per year.to compete and survive, growers, processors, distributors and retailers have developed the most sophisticated food delivery system ever seen in human civilization. that’s a good thing, as we have the safest, finest quality, and least expensive supply of food on the planet. but there is a downside and covid-19 hoarding shows that the system can show cracks quickly.what has happened is that consumers have become accustomed to last-minute availability of food at the local grocery store. some might recall that their grandparents used to can, freeze and store meats, fruits and vegetables, much of it from home gardens. that’s not done much anymore, hence few folks have any stored foods on hand. the result is that when a shortage develops, real or imagined, hoarding starts. it’s just human nature.what consumers should not expect is for the food system to suddenly gear up and produce more products. the food industry knows that unless actual consumption increases overall demand will not change. for instance, buying 12 cans of beans once a year is no different than buying one can a month to the supplier. it’s why toilet paper supplies will not suddenly increase unless the manufacturer can get triple profits, as there is no long-term viability for them to produce more than historical demand. i suspect actual toilet paper use has not increased.the real danger of a food shortage is when those growing and processing the products see an interruption. for instance, if the two big world-class beef plants in alberta shut down to protect the health of their 5,000 employees, real meat shortages could develop quickly, and because the system is so balanced, supplies from elsewhere may not be forthcoming. cattle would be backed up and would need to be processed much later, creating a different marketing calamity as prices would decline due to the surplus. a surplus situation is already developing with restaurants closing, thereby reducing markets for high-end food products. special sale prices and freezer storage may ease that situation for a while.our food supply system is finely tuned and is resilient to changing conditions but only in the longer term. some advocate that food distribution should be government-controlled to stop hoarding and assure fair distribution. the old soviet union proved such an approach only makes the situation worse and permanent.what lessons are to be learned as the food supply situation evolves have yet to be determined. from a cynical perspective, if covid-19 fades away, one suspects that consumers will revert to their usual last-minute buying habits. i expect that nothing will change in the food marketing system until real shortages and starvation occur. fortunately, we are far from that developing despite hoarding.will verboven is an agriculture opinion writer and policy consultant.