gilaad kaplan , university of calgary ; joseph w. windsor , university of calgary , and stephanie coward , university of calgary
a 2012 study found that crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis (two types of ibd) are significantly on the rise. a follow-up study published last year in the lancet demonstrated that these diseases affect over 0.3 per cent of the population in north america, oceania and many countries in europe .
in canada, the number of individuals affected by ibd is estimated to rise to around 0.7 per cent of the total population this year (first published in 2017), and to almost a full percentage of the population (roughly 400,000 afflicted individuals) by 2030 .
ibd was conservatively estimated to cost canadians $2.8 billion per year in direct and indirect costs, as of 2012 .
like the horse charging at a steaming locomotive in alex colville’s 1954 painting, horse and train , our health-care system is on track to crash with the unstoppable force of ibd.
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one way of achieving this may be to manipulate environmental exposures and optimize a healthy gut microbiome : the 100 trillion or so symbiotic microbes that live within our bodies that are necessary for our survival.
part of the reason for the dramatic increase in the number of individuals afflicted with ibd is because it is a disease of the young, most commonly diagnosed between the ages of 18 and 35 .
ibd is a chronic and incurable disease with low mortality. those diagnosed with ibd are not likely to die from the disease; they can live long lives. this combination of young age at diagnosis and low mortality leads to an epidemiologic concept called compounding prevalence .
a recent study forecasted that the prevalence of ibd will rise an average of three per cent per year over the next decade .
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in order to prevent a disease, you have to understand the disease. in 2018, we have come to understand that chronic inflammatory diseases arise from interactions between susceptibility genes and environmental exposures linked to the westernization of society , such as smoking, diet and even our intense focus on cleanliness .
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mutations in susceptibility genes can affect the interaction of the immune system and the gut microbiome. and this microbiome is set in early childhood where decisions such as bottle feeding or using antibiotics in infancy may raise the risk of developing ibd later in life.
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by doing so, we may stand a chance at stemming the global rise of chronic diseases like ibd and avoid an ugly encounter with the proverbial train upon the tracks.
this article is republished from the conversation under a creative commons license. read the original article .