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home / 世界杯决赛2022

covid-19: for every reported case in b.c., 100 people get sick: reports

modelling group issues mismatch of reported cases compared to true cases given b.c. rations lab testing

by gordon hoekstra

aug 19 2022
read time 2 minute read
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ubc professor sarah otto, a member of the independent covid-19 modelling group in b.c. vancouver sun
the true number of covid-19 cases in b.c. could be as much as 100 times higher than what is being reported publicly by the government, according to an assessment by independent modellers.
the b.c. modelling group — which includes experts from the university of b.c., simon fraser university, the university of victoria and the private sector — warned that under-reporting of covid-19 cases makes it challenging for the public to understand the risks.
ubc epidemiologist sarah otto, a member of the modelling group, said it’s important for people to know that the infection rate is much higher than reported because it will influence their decisions on protecting themselves.

“if you look at b.c.’s website, the (infection rate) curves look so low that it would be reasonable to think … maybe we can have looser behaviour,” said otto, a canada research chair in theoretical and experimental evolution at ubc who specializes in mathematical modelling.

using blood testing survey data from the covid-19 immunity task force and from canadian blood services, the modelling group estimated that cases in b.c. are being under-reported by as much as 100-fold.but the provincial health officer, dr. bonnie henry, said blood surveys in the past show there may be up to 10 times more cases in b.c. than lab tests reveal.
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“as we move into the respiratory illness season, everyone should remember covid-19 continues to circulate throughout the community. people should stay vigilant, practise covid-19 safety precautions as needed, and keep their vaccines up-to-date,” henry said in an email.
while it has been known for some time that the number of cases has been under-reported because the use of more expensive, lab testing has been ended for the public, and the province does not collect rapid testing data, the magnitude was not known.
while hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19 have remained stable and are dropping recently, it remains important to know the true level of cases, including to inform people about when and where to use masks and whether and when to get vaccinated or get a booster vaccine, said otto.
despite virtually all british columbians either being vaccinated or having got infected, protection will wane over time, perhaps three to four months for the omicron variant, explained otto.
on thursday, b.c. health minister adrian dix told cknw the health-care system is preparing for what could be a very difficult fall and winter with covid-19 and influenza.
public health officials ended public briefings last spring and now numbers are reported online, with more robust data being reported once a week.
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the latest figures from the b.c. centre for disease control show a downward trend since the spring in hospitalizations, critical care and deaths. there has been a small spike in august, which is dropping now.
the latest figures show 24 deaths this week, with 22 people in critical care and 366 people in total hospitalized. new cases reported this week are 877.
the listed case rates are among the lowest since the pandemic started in spring 2020 and one 30th the peak at the winter of 2021.
those most at risk of hospitalization or death continue to be those 60 and older, and particularly those over 80.
ghoekstra@postmedia.com
twitter.com/gordon_hoekstra

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