enrolment stagnant at ottawa english public board, up more for catholic and french boards
ottawa's largest school board enrolled about 200 more students this year, but the catholic board gained over 2,100 and french boards grew by a combined 2,300.
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a 2022 file photo of a portable class room at vimy ridge public school in gloucester, part of the ottawa-carleton district school board.
tony caldwell
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postmedia
enrolment at ottawa’s largest school board has increased by over 200 students this year, but that’s still almost 1,000 fewer students than it projected last spring. as of oct. 31, enrolment at the ottawa-carleton district school board stood at 77,522 students, compared to 77,313 a year earlier. however, the board had expected 78,518 students to enrol.
enrolment in the city’s other school boards has far outpaced growth at ocdsb.
ottawa catholic school board enrolment grew by more than 2,100 students.
the catholic board had 48,655 students in october 2023. board officials had predicted a 3.55-per-cent uptick to 50,383 students this fall. as of sept. 30, there were 50,769 students enrolled, 2,114 more than last year, and 386 more than projected. with the extra enrolment, the catholic board added 135 teachers to its payroll.
the region’s french-language boards, which cover a larger geographic area than the english boards, also reported significant gains.
the french catholic board, conseil des écoles catholiques du centre-est (cecce), had 28,208 students enrolled this fall, which was 1,375 more than last year.
the french public board, conseil des écoles publiques de l’est de l’ontario (cepeo), increased its enrolment by about 1,000 students, to 18,476 this fall from about 17,500 a year ago.
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school boards are in a perpetual market share battle with each other. why the ocdsb’s enrolment is stagnating is a complex question, trustee lyra evans said.
some families may prefer a religious education, whether they are catholic or not, she said. others choose a school that’s closest to home, or they may prefer a new school to an old school.
the ocdsb’s sweeping elementary review, which had not yet been released, had sparked concerns on social media that early french immersion in the public system may change. that conjecture may have drawn families to schools where french is the language of instruction.
but this is all just speculation. “we don’t have any hard evidence,” trustee lyra said. “it’s hard to do a survey of people who don’t come to your schools.”
meanwhile, there were demographic pockets where enrolment growth was lower than expected at both the catholic and the public boards.
preliminary ocdsb figures released in early october found 750 fewer kindergarten enrolments than expected. the catholic board’s numbers showed that, while kindergarten enrolments had increased by 323 this year, that was still 173 fewer kindergarten students than projected.
trustee lyra believes some parents are opting to keep their children at home or in an alternative private schools for the early years. small private schools, often with only a few dozen students, have proliferated in recent years, she notes.
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“if you have 10 of these, then you’ll have 300 missing kindergartners.”
school boards are required to submit annual enrolment estimates to ontario’s ministry of education by the end of june, with revisions after the start of school in september, when planning and human resources departments compare the projected numbers with staffing plans made the previous spring.
when enrolments are lower than expected, teachers and students are shuffled at schools with low enrolment, sometimes resulting in split and combined classes and education workers being moved to other classes or schools. final enrolment figures are sent to the ministry of education at the end of october.
most provincial funding is tied directly to average daily enrolment, known as ade. last year, the funding gap between expected growth in enrolment and actual enrolment at the ocdsb was $15 million on a total budget of $1.1 billion.
the ocdsb’s stagnating enrolment is a concern to trustees.
“we’re seeing inflationary pressures. when you have less students, you have less money,” trustee lyra said. “the chronic underfunding will drive parents to the private school system.”
at the ottawa-carleton district school board last year, student enrolment in early october 2023 was about 1,600 students lower than projected. by january, the gap between projected and actual enrolment had narrowed to about 700.
errol mcgihon
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postmedia
in october, after preliminary enrolment figures were released, trustee cathryne milburn urged board staff to learn more about why families didn’t enrol in the ocdsb.
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“i’m worried that this is going to be a trend, and i think we need to get ahead of it as best we can,” milburn said. “i understand that we can’t magically appear in people’s houses and ask then why they didn’t enrol in ocdsb. but i think we have to put some thinking into how we’re going to reach out to figure out why people don’t enrol.”
enrolment can also be a moving target as the year moves on. at the ocdsb last year, student enrolment in early october 2023 was about 1,600 students lower than projected. by january, the gap between projected and actual enrolment had narrowed to about 700 students.
projected enrolment is based on factors such as immigration, new housing and a school board’s “market share” compared to other boards. the ocdsb’s projections tended to be very accurate until the covid-19 pandemic hit, trustee lyra said.
“we’ve missed the last couple of years. maybe we have to figure out the new baseline, or make the formula better.”
asked for comment on its numbers, the cecce attributed its “remarkable” growth to a nurturing environment and innovative pedagogy.
for example, some cecce schools operate under the “balanced school year” schedule, in which part of the summer vacation time off is spread throughout the year. the frequent breaks help students maintain a consistent learning pace, the cecce says.
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“in a context where some school boards are facing recruitment challenges, we are delighted to see that our efforts to offer a quality education and an environment focused on well-being, equity, and inclusion, have earned the trust of parents and are reflected in this positive growth,” the cecce said in a statement.
“we are particularly proud of our diverse, inclusive, and vibrant francophone school community, which continues to grow and thrive.”
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