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home / 世界杯决赛2022

third covid wave is underway in ontario, advisers declare

the mutated viruses driving the surge are hyper-contagious, spreading faster and more efficiently than the older circulating variants

by sharon kirkey, national post

mar 17 2021
read time 4 minute read
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wave three of covid-19 is underway in ontario, the province’s scientific advisers have declared, and there are concerns that more people could end up in intensive care than during wave one or two.
while some doctors cautioned it may be too soon to call a third wave, the new “variants of concern” account for more than half — 53 per cent — of new infections in ontario, dr. peter jüni, scientific director of ontario’s covid-19 science table said tuesday.
jüni believes this is no mere blip or aberration. “this is extremely, extremely unlikely just to be an undulation,” he said. “the new variants of concern are now leading the epidemic curve.”
the mutated viruses driving the surge, notably the b.1.1.7 variant first detected in southeast england, are hyper-contagious, spreading faster and more efficiently than the older circulating variants. they may also be 30 to 60 per cent deadlier.
“but this is not driving the number of deaths — in the first place what drives the number of deaths is that this thing is more transmissible,” jüni said. “it’s much more important how many people get the disease.”
though larger shipments are expected — beginning next week — new vaccines have slowed to a trickle this week. variants are most prominent in ontario, but are also spreading in other parts of the country.
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in ontario, the immediate challenge is the densely packed golden horseshoe region. “other parts of the province are a bit delayed, so they might have one or two weeks longer,” jüni said. “but every week counts.”
“for the golden horseshoe, we’re too late. the vaccines won’t come early enough to help,” said jüni, who is recommending a short, sharp lockdown for the area. “we know what’s coming is inevitable. the longer we wait, the more painful it gets.
“we are between a rock and a hard place,” he said.
variants from the u.k., south africa and brazil have acquired mutations that make the spike protein coating the virus stickier, so that it’s better able to latch onto and enter human cells. they also require a smaller amount of virus to cause infection. the amount of virus people shed when they’re infectious is also higher, “which just makes it much easier to infect person to person,” infectious disease specialist dr. zane chagla said during an ontario medical association media briefing. the south africa and brazil variants also carry a mutation that allows the virus to escape antibodies that normally disable it.
the same variants are driving a second lockdown in most of italy. germany declared a third wave on friday, while a third wave of contagion is sweeping france, which, like canada, is facing a delay in the delivery of vaccines.
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studies from the u.k. suggest the variants are causing more severe disease. ontario’s science advisory table was meeting late tuesday to discuss whether the number of hospitalizations and icu admissions per 1,000 diagnosed cases could increase, compared to the earlier waves. “that’s the question we’re trying to answer,” jüni said.
one ottawa doctor said people seem to be having more complicated courses of infection — they improve, and then worsen again, said dr. james downar, a critical care specialist at the university of ottawa. slightly younger people also seem to be getting ill. “it is a bit hard to know if that is related to variants, because until recently we were not sequencing every sample,” downar said in an email.
two-thirds of ontario’s 34 public health units are now experiencing exponential growth of sars-cov-2 — defined as an effective reproductive number, the number each infected person goes on to infect, larger than one. it needs to be below one to slow the spread of covid.
as of tuesday, more than 3.2 million doses of covid-19 vaccines had been administered across canada. just under seven percent (6.9 percent) of the population has received at least one dose, according to the covid-19 tracker.

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“we need to be zeroing in 100 per cent on the vaccine now because this is our saving grace,” doris grinspun, ceo of the ontario registered nurses’ association said. “we are slow on the vaccines and we are quickly moving into the third wave. it’s a colliding disaster.”
but toronto associate medical officer of health, dr. vinita dubey, said defining the trend as a third wave depends on whether the increase is sustained, and not a blip.
in toronto, cases were plateauing, “now they seem to be on the upswing,” dubey said at the oma briefing.
“do you define it as a third wave or not? you can get these kinds of up and down swings,” she said. “but there’s no question, the variants are on the rise, and if we see more cases you can expect to see (the associated) hospitalizations and deaths…except where people are vaccinated.”
the race is to get the vulnerable inoculated, including elderly people and those living in marginalized communities, said dr. mariam hanna, a pediatric allergist. “is it going to be quick enough? time will tell.”
— with additional reporting from the canadian press

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