analysis: who pulls election plug first — trudeau or ford?
no sooner does doug ford promise everyone in his provin...
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no sooner does doug ford promise everyone in his province $200 cheques in the mail in early 2025 — resulting in many ontarians thinking we’re heading sooner than expected to the polls — when along comes justin trudeau with an even richer promise of $250 cheques for every canadian in the spring. the leaders explain the cheques — courtesy of the taxpayer — are being sent to taxpayers to help with the rising costs of living. election observers, however, smell early elections on the horizon.
which leader calls an (early) election first is high-stakes politics. the conservatives under opposition leader pierre poilievre, are riding super-high in the polls, well ahead of the governing liberals, but donald trump’s swearing in as the next u.s. president in january could benefit the incumbents, with trudeau advertised as having experience dealing with the deal-loving republican leader during his first term in the white house. with trump, personal relationships are key.
ontario has a fixed next election date of june 4, 2026, and federal voters are scheduled to go to the polls on or before oct. 20, 2025, but both ford and trudeau alone have the authority to pull the plug early.
with every pollster pointing to a smooth election victory pathway for poilievre, fellow tory doug ford might be feeling the pressure to get in ahead of the federal curve. canadian voters, particularly the critical electorate mass gathered around the greater toronto area, tend not to like having the same party in power at both senior levels of government.
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ford is doing well in the polls, but the longer he waits the bigger the danger to his progressive conservatives that ontarians get more familiar with the provincial liberals’ newest leader, bonnie crombie, an experienced politician, as well as the newish leader of the ndp, marit stiles, who heads the queen’s park opposition.
when ford was asked in the spring whether he remained committed to ontario’s 2026 fixed election date, he wouldn’t say. that question, and early election speculation, came after ford announced an accelerated plan to get beer, wine and other alcoholic drinks onto convenience store shelves by the fall.
that move cost taxpayers about $225 million as it required ontario to amend its agreement with the foreign-owned multinational brewers who operate the beer store ahead of the original expiry date at the end of 2025.
“the beer store decision — that made no sense,” university of windsor political scientist lydia miljan told the star. but perhaps referring to ford’s ‘buck-a-beer’ campaign promise ahead of his first election to the premiership in 2018, she added: “booze seems to be his thing.”
miljan, who describes herself as a non-partisan conservative politically, said tory-favourable ontario polls would suggest “people are not tired of doug ford yet,” and that his “brand of good ol’ boy” could be seen as helpful with the new and populist-leaning ‘america first’ trump people assuming power south of the border.
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miljan warns, however, that “it’s a risk going to the polls, especially this early.”
federally, however, miljan said she’s “never seen a governing party this far behind in the polls where they could turn it around.” after nearly a decade as prime minister, “people are just tuning out” justin trudeau, she said, calling it “trudeau derangement syndrome.”
in an early-december projection, 338canada, a national poll aggregator, predicted a conservative landslide win if a federal election were held now, with the governing liberals perhaps even in threat of losing opposition party status to the bloc quebecois.
“the liberals are in a tough position,” said miljan. she doesn’t believe trump will be a strong consideration at the canadian ballot box, rather it will be “carbon taxes and the cost of living. if the question is, ‘are you better off than four years or nine years ago?’ the answer is: ‘no.'”
running any election is a massive and expensive undertaking — political parties do not like to have two of them running even close in time to each other.
trudeau might not have a choice. his minority federal liberal government needs an opposition party’s support to continue in power.
but while ford still has a year and a half to go in his current mandate, “reading the tea leaves, i’d say doug ford would prefer an ontario election before a federal election,” said miljan.
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so when do we head to the polls? let’s cash those spring cheques first.
of course, everything changed on the federal front on dec. 16, when, just hours before tabling her fall economic statement, then-finance minister chrystia freeland, who was also the deputy prime minister, announced she was quitting cabinet.
those federal cheques — and the prime minister himself — might not survive the spring.
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