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immune-evasive covid subvariant in ottawa wastewater, part of new pandemic wave

the public health agency of canada says it is aware of 21 detections of xbb.1.5 and it is currently considered to be detected only sporadically across the country.

ottawa is experiencing the start of another pandemic wave that likely includes some cases of the highly contagious xbb.1.5 subvariant, according to one of the city’s leading wastewater researchers.
the subvariant that is driving a spike in cases in the united states is not playing a significant role in the current ottawa surge, say researchers, but they are expecting to see more of it. meanwhile, the virus that causes covid-19 is rising sharply in the city’s wastewater as cases, outbreaks and test positivity increase across the city.
between dec. 22 and dec. 28 in ottawa, the viral signal for covid in the city’s wastewater doubled. in the week since then, it has continued to rise to levels not seen since last july and nearing the peak of the wave last march, said tyson graber, associate scientist at the cheo research institute and co-lead investigator on ottawa’s coronavirus wastewater monitoring program.
he said the covid-19 surge is likely to continue throughout january. “the pandemic is not over, unfortunately.”
officials are keeping a close eye on the xbb.1.5 subvariant, which is behind a steep spike in cases in new york and elsewhere in the u.s., and has been detected in 29 countries, according to the world health organization. on wednesday, an official with the who called it the most transmissible version of covid yet, in part because of mutations that help it bind more easily to cells. there is no evidence that it causes more severe disease but some data suggests the risk of reinfection is higher with the xbb lineages. and global health officials say the risk of further mutations increases the more it circulates.
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the public health agency of canada says it is aware of 21 detections of xbb.1.5 and it is currently considered to be detected only sporadically across the country. the ontario genomics network is updating its software in order to specifically identify cases of xbb.1.5, which are currently identified as xbb.1.
meanwhile, china, which abruptly lifted its zero covid policy late last year, is experiencing an explosion of covid-19 cases, with tens of million of people being infected in a single day, according to reports. the who reported this week that the sub-variants ba.5.2 and bf.7, which have been circulating in ottawa for months, appear to be dominant in china’s outbreak.
beginning thursday, air travellers two and over coming to canada from china, hong kong or macau will have to provide evidence of a negative covid-19 test taken before departure.
throughout much of 2022, a soup of omicron subvariants spread through ottawa and across ontario. the xbb sub-variants are now becoming dominant in the u.s. that is not yet the case in ontario, but it could change, said graber.
as of mid-december, xbb — including the subvariants xbb.1 and xbb.1.5 — represented around three per cent of all of the sars-cov-2 virus genome sequenced in eastern ontario, said graber. this week, as cases of covid-19 increase in ottawa, researchers will get information about what has happened since then.
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“the big question is whether it is staying at that level or it has quintupled.”
ottawa, like the rest of ontario, has been dealing with an unusually severe viral illness season since last fall — one that has hammered cheo with record numbers of children requiring hospitalization, many of them having difficulty breathing because of rsv (respiratory syncytial virus) and influenza.
ottawa’s chief medical officer dr. vera etches warned before the holidays that things would get worse in january, in part because of all the close contact during the season.

in its most recent snapshot , ottawa public health reported that both rsv and covid-19 are at very high levels in the city’s wastewater and increasing. the test positivity rate for covid is 16.8 per cent and increasing, according to the oph report. rsv test positivity is 14.8 per cent in ottawa, similar to the level a week ago.

influenza test positivity is at 8.7 per cent in ottawa and not rising. but officials say they anticipate a second influenza wave with influenza b, similar to what was experienced in the southern hemisphere.
ottawa has seen four new covid outbreaks in long-term care homes and elsewhere and has 29 ongoing outbreaks, according to the report.

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the rise of a new wave of covid comes as hospitals continue to be under extraordinary pressure due to a severe viral illness season, staff shortages and other demands. in recent days, several small hospitals around ottawa have had to temporarily close emergency departments overnight because of staff shortages. a new covid wave, even one that is not more severe than past waves, is expected to put more pressure on hospitals.
public health ontario’s most recent epidemiological summary, which includes data up to dec. 10, did not report any xbb.1.5 in the province between mid-november and mid-december.
a spokesperson said an updated report is coming out on jan. 10.
“if xbb.1.5 has been identified, it will be captured in this update. we will have a better understanding of the spread of this variant once our analysis is complete,” the agency said.
elizabeth payne
elizabeth payne

elizabeth payne is an award winning health journalist whose stories became must-reads during the covid-19 pandemic and beyond.

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