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home / 世界杯决赛2022

large unmasked events could become super spreaders as signs point to a new wave

signs are pointing to a new wave of covid-19 in ottawa.

by elizabeth payne

mar 25 2022
read time 4 minute read
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with coronavirus levels rising sharply in wastewater and provincial mask mandates no longer in force, the conditions are right for two large events this weekend in ottawa to become covid-19 super spreaders.
on sunday, some 12,000 fans will gather for a long-delayed justin bieber concert at the canadian tire centre. the concert was originally scheduled for sept. 1, 2020, then rescheduled to july 5, 2021, and finally to march 27 of this year because of the pandemic.
the night before the concert, thousands of hockey fans will be at the arena to watch the ottawa senators play the florida panthers in a saturday night national hockey league game.
they will likely be the biggest indoor events in the city since mask mandates were revoked.
officials with the canadian tire centre and the ottawa senators said in a statement that they continued to recommend people wear masks to events, as staff and vendors would be doing. but, as of saturday night, masks will no longer be required at the canadian tire centre for the first time since 2020.
those large, mask-optional indoor events are happening just as a spring covid-19 wave appears to be taking off in ottawa, fueled by the more contagious ba.2 subvariant of omicron and pandemic restrictions are being lifted.
tyson graber says that, according to wastewater data, ba.2 is rapidly becoming the dominant variant of covid-19 in ottawa and is considered almost as contagious as measles
tyson graber says that, according to wastewater data, ba.2 is rapidly becoming the dominant variant of covid-19 in ottawa and is considered almost as contagious as measles jean levac / postmedia
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“it is a foregone conclusion that releasing these restrictions is going to lead to super spreader events,” said tyson graber, co-lead investigator of the covid-19 wastewater project in ottawa and associate scientist at the cheo research institute. “transmission has been high since the beginning of omicron. it has never really gone down to the point where it is low. those small fires are still out there and it doesn’t take much.”
the growth of ba.2 is likely a factor in the rapid spread of covid-19 in ottawa right now. according to wastewater data, ba.2 is rapidly becoming the dominant variant in ottawa. it is considered almost as contagious as measles, graber said.
given that, anyone attending large indoor events right now should assume people with covid-19 are present and take precautions, said dr. doug manuel, a senior scientist at the ottawa hospital research institute and a member of ontario’s science advisory table.
“i would plan on the idea that you are going to be likely walking past someone not wearing a mask who has covid,” manuel said. “transmission will occur from these events. the question is how much.”
the answer to that question could be key to what happens in the coming days.
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ottawa public health also encourages mask use “as an additional layer of protection” at events such as saturday’s senators home game and the bieber concert.
but, in a statement, oph said it was up to people to assess their own risk.
“we are shifting to a space where individuals and their families must choose, rather than be mandated, how to best protect themselves. this will include the decision to wear a mask in indoor or shared spaces,” the statement said.
dr. doug manuel, a senior scientist at the ottawa hospital research institute and a member of ontario’s science advisory table says, “transmission will occur from these events. the question is how much.”
dr. doug manuel, a senior scientist at the ottawa hospital research institute and a member of ontario’s science advisory table says, “transmission will occur from these events. the question is how much.” tony caldwell / postmedia
many have criticized ontario for reopening too quickly, especially lifting mask mandates in schools immediately after march break. there has also been pressure on ottawa public health to bring back local mask mandates, especially in schools, something oph claims it is unable to do.
but, in a statement, oph said it was watching signs of rising case counts closely and would work with the province’s chief medical officer of health, dr. kieran moore, to assess options if key indicators, including hospitalizations, began to increase “in a concerning way.”
manuel said it was still early, but he was concerned that, if trends continued, there could be a repeat of some of the problems seen in the earlier omicron wave with high rates of illness affecting schools and health-care organizations.

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“i am concerned about staffing if these cases keep continuing.”
ontario’s covid-19 science advisory table earlier projected that the province would see a bump in new cases after reopening, but hospitalizations would not be as high as they were in january, when some surgeries and procedures had to be postponed. the high rate of infection with the ba.1 variant and high vaccination rates, the science table said, should protect the province against the kind of steep spring waves being seen in europe and elsewhere.
the rate of growth of the latest wave could tell another story.
graber is convinced the new wave has begun in the city.
“last week, i would have said this might be just a little bump, but i think this is a true wave that we are seeing.”
wastewater levels suggest rates of covid-19 in ottawa are already half as high as they were during the peak of the omicron wave in january, and numbers are still increasing. graber said the speed of growth being seen in ottawa wastewater right now was the fastest since the pandemic began in 2020 and could reflect the high transmissibility of the ba.2 subvariant.
in addition, test positivity has been rising in ottawa and is now at 18 per cent.
on thursday, ottawa public health released a statement from deputy medical officer of health dr. brent moloughney saying “we can expect to continue to see evidence of increased transmission in the community,” with lifting of public health measures, increased mobility and social gatherings.

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moloughney noted that, while hospitalizations will increase, they are not expected to be as high as in january, when some surgeries and procedures were postponed. but the extent of the increase will depend on the number of close contacts people have, especially indoors without masking, vaccination rates and the spread of ba.2.
if this weekend’s large events — and other maskless social gatherings across the city — do lead to a further increase in transmissions, it will likely show up in the city’s wastewater within the next week, graber said.
elizabeth payne
elizabeth payne

elizabeth payne is an award winning health journalist whose stories became must-reads during the covid-19 pandemic and beyond.

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