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home / 世界杯决赛2022

'you don't fully absorb it': omicron's spread across the province is taking experts by surprise

just weeks after it was first identified in south africa, the highly contagious omicron variant is spreading through the province with such speed that it has taken experts by surprise.

by elizabeth payne

dec 14 2021
read time 4 minute read
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the omicron variant does not so much announce its presence as it smashes the door down.
that is the case in ontario right now as communities, including ottawa, cope with the sudden impact of spiking cases and community spread of omicron.
just weeks after it was first identified in south africa, the highly contagious variant of sars-cov-2 is spreading through the province with such speed that it has taken experts by surprise.
“as epidemiologists and public health officials, even we need to splash our faces with cold water for it to sink in,” said dr. doug manuel, a senior scientist at the ottawa hospital research institute and a member of ontario’s science advisory table.
“the first time you see it, you don’t fully absorb it.”
the reality of omicron in ontario is that it is spreading at a rate not seen since the pandemic began. cases of the variant are doubling every three days, according to the science advisory table. as of dec. 7, its effective reproduction number, the rate at which it spreads, was 4.07, compared to 1.09 for delta, according to the science table.
that makes the omicron variant more contagious than chicken pox, said manuel.
“i think it has surprised us,” he said. “we expect new variants, but to see one at this time just before christmas and on this trajectory … .”
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in ottawa, two elementary schools have recently been closed due to “exploding” covid-19 outbreaks. at one of them, in stittsville, transmission of omicron has been confirmed. that is the first confirmation of community spread of the variant in the city.
the emergence of the omicron variant has led to a large increase in the number of people testing positive, ottawa’s medical officer of health dr. vera etches said in a special statement monday, which has caused a backlog in notifying people whose close contacts have tested positive for covid-19.
anyone testing positive should self-isolate and notify their high-risk close contacts immediately, said the statement.
on monday, the kingston, frontenac, lennox & addington public health unit clamped down on indoor gatherings in the community amid a spike in covid-19 cases, many of which are believed to be the omicron variant. earlier, queen’s university cancelled all in-person exams amid surging cases.
ontario reported more than 1,500 new cases of covid-10 on monday, up 73 per cent from a week earlier. in kingston, case counts have shot up by 191 per cent in a week and ottawa has seen a 75 per cent jump.
for now, the delta variant remains dominant in the province, but that will change within days. omicron is likely to take over by the end of this week, bringing exponential growth of covid-19 cases with it. other countries have seen nearly vertical growth in cases when omicron took over.
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coming during the lead-up to the holiday season — traditionally the busiest period of social activity during the year — that has health officials and policy makers on edge.
it is likely most cases will be milder than with previous variants, as some data suggests and the federal government has reported in canada. but its rate of spread could still cause serious problems for the already struggling health-care system, said manuel. health-care workers, for example, would have to isolate if they tested positive. with a rapid spike in cases across the community, that could severely hamper the ability of hospitals and other health institutions to provide services.
“it may be less virulent — we don’t know — but it has to be a lot less virulent for us not to run into serious issues with our health-care system.”
he noted that hospitals in winnipeg and elsewhere have already shut down some surgeries.
“these are just foreshadowing. all of ontario is going to be affected soon.”
in the u.k., which has called in the army to help with a vaccination blitz in the face of omicron, one death related to the variant has been reported. both the u.k. and denmark, which are seeing omicron-fuelled pandemic waves, are beginning to report hospitalizations.

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among manuel’s concerns is whether actions taken to slow the spread of omicron in ontario can be rolled out quickly enough to have a significant impact. and then there is the question of whether the pandemic-weary public has an appetite to accept more restrictions.
the hope, said manuel, is to slow transmission until more people receive third doses and more children receive first and second doses to better protect them and reduce disruptions. even people with two doses can transmit and become infected with the omicron variant.
last friday, the day after members of the science table and public health officials held a tense meeting to discuss the growth of omicron in the province, ontario chief medical officer of health dr. kieran moore broadened access to booster doses to everyone over 18, beginning in january, expanded testing and encouraged people to downgrade their holiday plans. on monday, the province told thousands of government employees to return to work at home as covid-19 cases surge. he also announced the expanded use of rapid tests in schools and long-term care homes.
more moves to protect long-term care residents are expected from the province.
manuel, meanwhile, said the picture is changing so rapidly in ontario that it is hard to keep up. there is usually a 10-day reporting lag between the time when people are infected and their positive test is recorded in the provincial tally. that means people being infected today will not be recorded for 10 days and the picture will look quite different by then, he said.

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“there are a lot of people being exposed today.”
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elizabeth payne
elizabeth payne

elizabeth payne is an award winning health journalist whose stories became must-reads during the covid-19 pandemic and beyond.

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