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home / 世界杯决赛2022

modelling predicts covid surge in ontario without 'circuit breaker'

new covid-19 modelling predicts potentially 10,000 case...

by antonella artuso

dec 16 2021
read time 3 minute read
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new covid-19 modelling predicts potentially 10,000 cases a day or higher and an overwhelmed hospital sector by year’s end without additional measures to reduce the contact between people over the holidays.
dr. adalsteinn brown, of the ontario science table, said the fourth wave promises to be the largest yet in this pandemic.
while booster shots will be important, vaccination alone will not prevent a surge in cases, he said.
ontario reported 2,421 new cases thursday on the day the new modelling was released.
“despite the seriousness, with prompt action, we can slow down and we can reduce some of the impact of this wave,” brown said.
omicron transmits very quickly and will create “unsustainable” icu occupancy levels in early january without additional measures, the report says.
“circuit breakers with strong additional public health measures, at least 50% fewer contacts, and strong booster campaigns, 250,000 per day, could blunt the omicron wave,” the report says. “high-quality masks, physical distancing indoors, improved ventilation, and increased access to rapid testing can help buy time for boosters to take effect and keep schools open.”
the report acknowledges “uncertainty” in the modelling but says waiting to react should not be an option.
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the doug ford government announced wednesday that it would open up booster shots to all eligible ontarians aged 18 and older starting monday and that maximum capacity at large sporting and concert venues would be cut to 50% effective saturday.
alexander hilkene, a spokesperson for health minister christine elliott, said the modelling confirms the expanded booster program will help blunt the omicron impact.
“while the province’s icus continue to remain stable, we expect the number of admissions to rise in the coming weeks as omicron spreads, particularly among the unvaccinated,” hilkene said in a statement. “as of december 16, there were 166 covid-19 related critical illness patients in icu. approximately 600 icu beds are immediately available with nearly 500 more icu beds available for surge capacity if required.”
doris grinspun, ceo of the registered nurses’ association of ontario (rnao), said health care workers, especially those in long-term care (ltc), and teachers should be provided with n95 masks.
there is consensus that omicron is much more contagious and able to break through vaccinations although it is a much greater risk to the unvaccinated, brown said.
while early reports out of south africa suggest the new variant is less likely to cause severe disease, brown said initial findings from other jurisdictions suggest that may not be the case in older populations, the report says.
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the predictions for daily cases is broad, ranging from about 1,250 cases a day with a strong “circuit breaker” to over 10,000 cases a day by christmas under the status quo.
icu beds could see 600 patients or more by jan. 1 or fewer than 250 patients with new measures, the report says.

ontario covid modelling

public health units with increase in average weekly cases: 29
public health units with decrease in average weekly cases: 5
timeframe for omicron to become dominant strain: this week
best-case scenario: ranging from 1,300-5,000 cases a day by jan. 1
worst-case scenario: ranging from 6,000-10,000 and up cases a day by jan. 1
best-case scenario: ranging from 250-325 patients in icu by jan. 1
worst-case scenario: ranging from 250-600 patients in icu by jan. 1
percentage of cases hospitalized with omicron in denmark: 0.81% (small sample)
percentage of cases hospitalized with delta in denmark: 0.75% (large sample)
median age in south africa where omicron cases milder: 28 years
median age in ontario: 41 years
vaccine effectiveness against omicron with two doses: 33-34%
vaccine effectiveness against omicron with two doses and booster: 75%
vaccine effectiveness against serious illness with two doses: 70%

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(source: ontario science table)
aartuso@postmedia.com

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