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it's no longer looking like an easy election win for the b.c. ndp, says pollster
vaughn palmer: a lot will depend on the last month of the campaign as voters learn more about conservative leader john rustad
aug 8 2024
4 minute read
pollster mario canseco.
nick procaylo
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victoria — the biggest development in provincial politics this year is the way the b.c. conservatives have steadily closed ground on the b.c. ndp, a trend documented in a succession of opinion polls from research co.
back in january, the conservatives were already in second place in a research poll, but 21 points behind the ndp. by april, the gap was reduced to 18 points, then 10 in may and seven in june.
the ndp lead over the conservatives was trimmed to three points — 41 per cent versus 38 per cent among decided voters — in the most recent research survey, reported at the end of july.
the conservative gain came partly at the expense of the ndp, which dropped from 46 per cent in january to 41 in july. the greater loser was b.c. united, which slumped from third place and 17 per cent in january down to fourth place and nine per cent in july.
when the trend is so pronounced, it invites speculation as to what’s next. will the conservatives make it a dead heat with the ndp? has b.c. united plumbed the depths of public support — or rather, lack of same?
wait for the next poll. but the trend has already transformed this year’s election, according research president mario canseco.
“the illusions of an easy victory by the governing b.c. ndp — assisted by a split of the centre right vote between the rebranded b.c. united and the upstart conservative party of b.c. — are effectively gone,” he wrote recently in business in vancouver.
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canseco’s caution against taking another ndp win for granted recalled the comment attributed to a retiring cabinet minister — that complacency posed the biggest challenge to the governing party’s re-election chances.
research polls suggested a couple of other developments worth noting, according to canseco.
those who voted green in 2020 were “more likely to be backing the b.c. conservatives this time (21 per cent) than the b.c. ndp (11 per cent).”
i wonder if it accounts for the recent flirtation between conservative leader john rustad and andrew weaver, the former leader of the greens.
as for united, the pollster had this withering comment: “in single digits across the province, with the lowest-rated party leader and no longer a factor in their usual stronghold in the southern part of the province, b.c. united runs the risk of becoming irrelevant.”
canseco’s view, underscored in his other comment reported above, is that united support has slumped to a level where vote splitting may be less of a factor than it appeared at the outset of the year.
he’s only one pollster among many. but the five polls cited above provide a detailed illustration of the way the conservatives have closed on the ndp while opening up a gap with united.
for a full reading of canseco’s polls, his methodology and margin of error, go to researchco.ca , the company website.
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i was also struck by some comments this week from angus reid, the grandparent of modern-day opinion polling in this country and still active through the non-profit angus reid foundation and his opinion forum.
reid provided some telling insights in an hour-long interview on hotel pacifico, the podcast co-hosted by campaign strategist and former b.c. liberal party aide, mike mcdonald.
he acknowledged the “spectacular” rise of the conservatives and the decline of the party that governed the province for 16 straight years as the b.c. liberals.
united leader kevin falcon has folded, disappointing his own supporters, said reid. the conservative surge he attributed in part to a rise of “populism overwhelming elite consensus” on the economy, cost of living and other issues.
but having said that, he still thinks the odds favour a win for the new democrats.
premier david eby’s numbers are still strong and his personal rating is “pretty good.” he’s regarded as intelligent and compassionate in the soundings of the angus reid forum.
pressed for an election prediction, reid estimated a “55 to 60 per cent chance of the ndp winning another term.”
then quickly added: “don’t go to vegas and bet on it.”
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the veteran pollster hesitated because eby’s main challenger, john rustad, is still a largely unknown quantity to many voters despite serving almost 20 years as an mla.
people are expressing support for “a guy they don’t even know,” said reid. “he really hasn’t been out of the gate yet.”
though only 10 weeks remain before oct. 19 election day, a significant portion of the electorate doesn’t fully engage until the final four weeks that make up the official phase of the election with the debates, attack ads and round-the-clock campaigning.
only then will voters discover “what rustad is all about,” says reid.
campaigns matter.
following the surprising (to me anyway) outcome of the 2013 election, i said that two-word slogan ought to be posted on the office wall of every newsroom and pundit.
soon after, i opened my mail to discover a wall hanging — crocheted yet — with the words “campaigns matter.”
it’s still there on my wall, reminding me not to get too carried away with my predictions or those of anyone else.
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