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tank: rising violence in saskatoon mars overall decrease in crime
violent crime has risen significantly over the first half of the year in saskatoon, but overall crime and property crime have decreased.
aug 17 2024
3 minute read
saskatoon police investigate on june 12, 2024 after a 66-year-old man was seriously injured in the 400 block of forrester road in the fairhaven neighbourhood. he later died and his death is being investigated as the 11th homicide of 2024 in saskatoon.
michelle berg
/
saskatoon starphoenix
a jump in violence in saskatoon makes it tough to celebrate a marked decrease in other types of crime.
through the first half of this year, the number of violent crimes in saskatoon rose by nearly 11 per cent compared to the first half of last year.
that amounts to 231 more violent crimes, including four more homicides, 100 more assaults, 56 more robberies, 43 more instances of criminal harassment (stalking) and 15 more reported sexual violations.
the violent crimes through the first six months of this year total 2,420, which means the city is on track for an eight per cent jump over last year and a nearly 15 per cent rise from 2022.
if the trend continues for the rest of the year, the violent crimes this year would mark a nearly 20 per cent increase above the average (3,878) from 2016 to 2022.
that’s clearly disturbing, and violent crime obviously ranks as more serious than other crimes, but it also needs to be viewed in the context of a growing city.
in 2016, the first year used to determine that average, the census pegged saskatoon’s population at 246,376. but the bridge city grew by about 18 per cent over that seven years, or about 2.6 per cent per year.
it will certainly serve as little comfort to the victims of violence, but you would expect the number of crimes to increase in a growing city. the crime rate, which measures crimes per 100,000 people, serves as a measurement that looks beyond growth.
by the latter metric, the saskatoon region fared better last year, with a crime severity index — which measures the seriousness of crime — that increased by 2.2 per cent over 2022 — more in line with population growth.
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the saskatoon area also improved from the sixth-worst urban area in canada as measured by the crime severity index to the eighth-worst.
despite some encouraging trends , police chief cam mcbride stressed the rise in violent crime remains a concerning development, regardless of how it relates to population growth.
“definitely, any rise in the number of violent crimes is of concern to me,” mcbride told reporters last month.
“and the reporting that i’m receiving from our members, our frontline staff on the street, is that there seems to be a higher propensity to use violence on the streets and certainly with regard to the use of weapons. we’re seeing that for sure.”
that sounds terribly grim, so you might be shocked that, overall, the number of saskatoon crimes (15,383) dropped by nearly 11 per cent during the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.
property crimes (8,265) also dropped by 11 per cent. that suggests saskatoon could be on track this year for just slightly more than the average of 16,420 annual property crimes from 2016 to 2022.
these reductions include a 47 per cent plummet in non-residential break and enters (289 fewer), a 36 per cent drop in arson (32 fewer), a 27 per cent decline in vehicle theft (158 fewer) and a 22 per cent decrease in possession of stolen property (45 fewer).
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those represent stunning declines for any growing city at any time. logic suggests that all crime should theoretically rise by at least the rate of growth, so any decreases hold significance.
but that is especially true given the ongoing prevalence of the issues in saskatoon that contribute to crime: homelessness, addictions and inadequate mental health supports.
you would expect property crimes to increase at least somewhat, given the current environment, so a significant drop merits further analysis.
but a drop in crime defies the narrative of some of those challenging for seats in november’s city council election. a perceived crime wave helps them claim there’s a desperate need for change.
a reduction in crime will probably prompt some candidates to claim people have stopped reporting crimes. but who fails to report an auto theft? what business keeps quiet about a break-in? and how do you hide arson?
there’s no glossing over the rise in violence; nor should there be. but a drop in crime needs to be acknowledged, too.
phil tank is the digital opinion editor at the saskatoon starphoenix.
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