first reading: how far trudeau could go in clinging to power
in an extreme case, he prorogues parliament and walls himself up in the pmo until the federal government goes broke
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first reading is a daily newsletter keeping you posted on the travails of canadian politicos, all curated by the national post’s own tristin hopper. to get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.
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even as calls for the resignation of prime minister justin trudeau pile up, there’s no immediate reason he has to listen to any of them.
like any prime minister of canada, trudeau retains immense and largely unchecked power to keep his job even if nobody wants him anymore.
however this scandal plays out, if trudeau doesn’t leave on his own accord, there’s actually little to stop him from unilaterally governing the country by executive fiat until the federal government runs out of money.
the first thing playing to trudeau’s advantage is that there’s no mechanism for the liberal party to forcefully turf him from power.
as per the party’s official constitution, leadership votes can only be held if a leader dies or contests an election in which they fail to “become or continue to be the prime minister.”
this would be different if the liberal caucus had ever adopted the terms of the reform act; a 2014 bill under which party leaders would be plunged into a leadership review if just 20 per cent of their mps signed a form demanding one.
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as of press time, about 50 liberal mps have publicly called for trudeau to step aside – about one third of his 154-member caucus. however, since the liberal caucus has never voted to follow the terms of the reform act, none of these calls have any material effect on trudeau’s tenure.
what dissident liberals could do instead is simply tell trudeau that they will no longer support him in the house of commons. they could threaten that if trudeau remains party leader, they will abstain at the next confidence vote and allow his government to fall.
in fact, even the ndp could do that, give that trudeau commands a minority government. ndp leader jagmeet singh could feasibly demand that if trudeau is still the prime minister at the next session of parliament (scheduled to resume on jan. 29), he’ll pull his party’s support and allow the government to fall.
however, it’s notable that neither the ndp or any dissident liberals are threatening as much. only the conservatives and the bloc québécois are calling for a federal election — everyone else is simply requesting that trudeau voluntarily pass the torch to a new liberal prime minister.
singh, in fact, was quite explicit in saying that trudeau “has to go” while refusing to commit to a non-confidence motion.
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even if singh did threaten to dissolve parliament, though, trudeau could still head him off by shutting down parliament.
as prime minister, trudeau is effectively in charge of canada’s executive branch — in addition to all his usual parliamentary powers. and one of those executive powers is that he can start or stop parliament whenever he wants.
if trudeau gets word that the next sitting of parliament could be his downfall, he can simply prorogue parliament to ensure that the sitting never happens.
what’s more, there’s even precedent for a prime minister using prorogation to stave off a challenge to their power. the most notable being in 2008, when then-prime minister stephen harper prorogued parliament in advance of a threatened liberal-ndp coalition to oust him from power.
when the prorogation ended less than two months later, the coalition threat had passed, with the liberals under michael ignatieff agreeing to pass a conservative budget.
but a prorogation can go on for quite some time. under the constitution, parliament only needs to sit once every 12 months — so trudeau could feasibly send everybody home until the next federal election in october.
during the prorogation, trudeau would retain all his other executive powers, such as judicial and ambassadorial appointments — and basically anything else that can be fit into an order-in-council, canada’s version of an executive order.
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this month alone, trudeau has issued more than 30 of them, covering everything from parole board appointments, to sanctions against chinese nationals, to a new ambassador for turkmenistan, to an order reimbursing “palestinian nationals” for any money they spent applying for canadian visas.
the only problem with the “prorogue until october” option is money.
trudeau can do much via executive fiat, but he needs parliament to approve the monies needed to keep the federal government running.
conveniently for him, on dec. 10 the house of commons passed a bill releasing $21.6 billion to fund the federal civil service for the rest of “the fiscal year ending march 31, 2025.”
that’s not a lot — particularly in a federal government running a $62 billion deficit — but it does mean that the house of commons just surrendered their most immediate leverage against the prime minister.
unbeknownst to many canadians is that for most of the fall, parliament had been seized by a kind of extended filibuster. in protest over the trudeau government’s refusal to release documents related to its so-called “green slush fund,” the conservatives have been endlessly debating pointless legislative minutia in an explicit attempt to seize the wheels of government.
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the effect of this was to lead the trudeau government to the precipice of going broke. as recently as november, treasury board president anita anand was warning that if the filibuster continued, canada could begin lurching into a kind of u.s.-style government shutdown over the holidays. “we are okay for the next three to four weeks but we need to make sure money flows,” she said on nov. 19.
with the $21.6 billion, however, trudeau could prorogue in the face of widespread revolt and still be assured of staying prime minister until at least the spring.
of course, the one major check overhanging all of this is the governor general.
governor general mary simon retains the power to deny or limit prorogation — and even deny orders-in-council. in a pinch, she could even dissolve the government and call an election.
but the rule of thumb is that the governor general is never supposed to be seen interfering with the usual workings of electoral politics. so — absent a unilateral delegation of mps pounding on the doors of rideau hall and demanding she fire a rogue prime minister — trudeau can be assured that, however he responds, it’s more likely than not the governor general will go along with it.’
in other news
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the conservatives have made it a persistent talking point that the ndp are continuing to prop up the liberal government for the singular reason that party leader jagmeet singh doesn’t become eligible for a parliamentary pension until feb. 25. there are probably other reasons, even if it is a very good pension. nevertheless, in an interview with cbc news network, ndp house leader peter julian was strangely specific in how long his party would allow the current liberal infighting to go on. “at the end of february, early march, if we have the continued debacle that we’re seeing here and the prime minister has not stepped down … yes, the ndp, the adults in the room, would step up on (a non-confidence vote),” he said.
being a backbencher mp can afford a surprising amount of downtime, so it’s not uncommon for the winter house of commons session to end with someone standing up to deliver an elaborate parody of the 1823 poem a visit from st. nicholas. this one, entered into the parliamentary record on monday, comes courtesy of liberal mp darren fisher.
‘twas the week before christmas,
conservative mps were muzzled.
our investments in housing,
have old p.p. puzzled.
their party won’t talk about foreign interference,
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for christmas, will their leader get his security clearance?
dental care, child care, what more could there be?
school food and pharmacare
they tore up our deal. they started to gloat,
but guess what happened on the next confidence vote.
supply management and seniors, the bloc has lots to say—
i don’t really understand, mr. speaker, je ne parle pas français.
to calm caucus rebels, we cut the gst,
a small christmas gift from the liberals and me.
groceries are high. there’s trouble with the mail,
but we still have a chance to win cloverdale.
now, mr. speaker, it’s not a contest, so i don’t mean to brag,
but it’s only our leader whose name is on a flag.
one final thought though, canada ain’t broke.
though i will admit we may be a bit woke.
mr. speaker, colleagues, merry christmas and happy holidays, too.
may we all get a christmas card from a randy or two.
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