back pain expected to affect over 800 million people by 2050

the lack of available treatment options and inconsistencies in managing lower back pain could lead to "important social and economic consequences."

by dave yasvinski

published may 26, 2023

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lower back pain can lead to significant disability

researchers found more than one-third of the disability burden that accompanies lower back pain is caused by occupational factors, smoking and having a high bmi. getty

a new study projects that by 2050, around 843 million people around the world will be affected by lower back pain — an increase of more than 230 million cases in just 30 years. the analysis, which was published in the journal lancet rheumatology today, has researchers concerned there is a new health-care crisis in the making with no consistent approach to treatment in sight. the peer-reviewed study, which was conducted at the university of washington’s school of medicine as part of the global burden of disease study 2021, projects the biggest increases will come from regions experiencing major population growth, such as africa, and aging, such as asia.

lower back pain, when left untreated, can lead to significant disability. the condition is more commonly experienced by women than men across all age groups and worsens over time until peaking at age 85.

“our analysis paints a picture of growing low back pain cases globally, putting enormous pressure on our healthcare system,” said manuela ferreira, lead author of the study from sydney musculoskeletal health in australia. “we need to establish a national, consistent approach to managing low back pain that is informed by research.”

the study, which analyzed data from over 200 countries between 1990 and 2020, found that more than one-third of the disability burden that accompanies lower back pain is caused by occupational factors, smoking and being overweight. although many believe the condition to be more common in people of working age, the numbers show it to be far more frequent in older adults.

“ministries of health cannot continue ignoring the high prevalence of musculoskeletal conditions including low back pain,” said alarcos cieza, unit head, world health organization, headquarters, geneva. “these conditions have important social and economic consequences, especially considering the cost of care. now is the time to learn about effective strategies to address the high burden and to act.”

according to researchers, many of these same concerns were raised by independent experts in 2018 alongside recommendations on the best way to change global policy and slow the spread of ineffective treatments. little has changed since then, the team said, partly due to inconsistencies in how health professionals manage the issue.

“it may come as a surprise to some that current clinical guidelines for back pain treatment and management do not provide specific recommendations for older people,” ferreira said. “older people have more complex medical histories and are more likely to be prescribed strong medication, including opioids for back pain management, compared to younger adults. but this is not ideal and can have a negative impact on their function and quality of life, especially as these analgesics may interfere with their other existing medications. this is just one example of why we need to update clinical guidelines to support our health professionals.”

if action is not taken now, researchers fear things will only get worse for back pain patients of all ages. “low back pain continues to be the greatest cause of disability burden worldwide. there are substantial socio-economic consequences of this condition, and the physical and personal impact directly threatens healthy aging.”

dave yasvinski is a writer with healthing.ca

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