are men on their way to becoming 'subfertile'?

a new book by famed environmental and reproductive epidemiologist dr. shanna swan unleashed a bombshell claim that human penises and sperm count are shrinking at an alarming rate, to the detriment of global populations.

“what we found and published in 2017 was that sperm count had declined dramatically over the preceding 40 years and was at a point where nearly half of men would be…subfertile at least,” swan explained in an interview on lockdown tv.  “if it were to continue on its present course, that’s a difficult thing to project, but just mathematically if you’ve extended the line it does hit zero in 2045.”

the book is based on an article from the hebrew university of jerusalem (swan is listed as an author). researchers conducted a meta-analysis of english-language studies that dealt with human sperm count from 1981 to 2013. they ended up analysing data from what can only be described as a boat-load of semen: 244 estimates from 42,935 men.

the results indicated a significant decline in sperm count in samples from western populations (north america, europe, australia and new zealand) at 1.6 per cent per year, and an overall decline of almost 60 per cent from 1973 to 2011. similar studies conducted in africa, asia, and south africa, have not shown a similar decline, however, vice notes that this may also be due to fewer long-term studies being conducted in these regions.

although the study did not target a cause of decreasing sperm counts, sawn believes that increasing presence of chemicals in our daily life, like phthalates, bpa , parabens and atrazine, are a major factor in this development.

“the book does not seem sensible,” tom chivers, science editor for unherd wrote in a recent review. “because for swan, everything causes fertility problems, not just phthalates. sugar, beef, cycling, stress, watching tv, doing too much exercise, doing too little, eating the wrong diet; you can barely get out of bed in the morning without sabotaging your chance of having a baby.”

“it seems bizarre to suggest that this is going to lead to human extinction”

published in the lancet , models suggest the world’s population will peak at 9.73 billion people by 2064, and then sharply decline to 8.79 billion by 2100. (the current global population is estimated to be 7.75 billion according to the u.s. census bureau.)

“that’s a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline,” researcher prof christopher murray told the bbc .

emjones@postmedia.com |  @jonesyjourn

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