for example, they look at where a species is today, where its range could shift to in the future because of warming temperatures and which different species could meet for the first time because of these shifts and share a pathogen that could then jump to humans.
this work is based on assumptions, he said, “but the broader pattern — that species are on the move, they’re taking their viruses with them and that’s probably consequential — is something you don’t even really need a model to show.”
bats are the key players in this because there is evidence that their range is shifting very quickly, and they carry viruses, including coronaviruses, which caused sars and covid-19, and the virus that causes ebola.
“we’re worried about the human health impacts from this for reasons i don’t really have to explain anymore,” carlson said.
bats are going to meet primates, he said, “and that’s probably a decent stepping stone for viruses to reach us.”
people tend to settle in areas with stable climates, and so do many species, so “all of this is going to be happening in our backyard,” he said.
if you look at species’ ranges historically and consider that the world is already one degree warmer, “there’s a reasonable chance that this has already kicked in and that species are already moving and sharing viruses,” he said.